Definition
Expected CTR is a quality component representing the likelihood your ad will be clicked. Higher expected CTR can reduce cost for the same position.
Example
Improving ad relevance and CTR history can lift expected CTR in auctions.
How to use it
- Improve expected CTR by matching intent and refreshing creative angles.
- Compare within similar placements and query intent, not across everything.
- Use CTR trends with conversion rate to avoid optimizing for clicks only.
Common mistakes
- Comparing expected CTR across very different keywords or match types.
- Chasing clicks with low-intent creative that hurts CVR.
Why this matters
This term matters because it affects how you interpret performance and make budget decisions. If you use inconsistent definitions or windows, ROAS/CPA can look "better" while profit gets worse.
Practical checklist
- Write a 1-line definition for "Expected CTR" that your team will use consistently.
- Keep the time window consistent (weekly/monthly/quarterly) when comparing trends.
- Segment results (channel/plan/cohort) before drawing big conclusions from blended averages.
- Sanity-check with a related calculator from the same category on MetricKit.
- Read the related guide (e.g., Frequency and creative fatigue: diagnose performance decay and fix it) for context and common pitfalls.
Where to use this on MetricKit
Calculators
- A/B Test Sample Size Calculator: Estimate sample size per variant for a conversion rate A/B test given baseline CVR, MDE, significance, and power.
- CPL to CAC Calculator: Convert cost per lead (CPL) into CAC using lead-to-customer rate (and compute targets).
- Break-even CVR Calculator: Compute the CVR required to break even (and hit a target) given CPM, CTR, AOV, and contribution margin.
- Click-through Conversion Rate Calculator: Calculate click-through conversion rate (click-to-conversion CVR) and estimate required clicks for target conversions.
- ROAS Calculator: Calculate Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) and estimate contribution profit after ad spend.
Guides
- Frequency and creative fatigue: diagnose performance decay and fix it: Learn how frequency, reach, and impressions interact with CTR/CVR, when to cap frequency, and how to refresh creatives without tanking learning.