Definition
Opportunity win rate is the fraction of opportunities that become closed-won. It should be measured with a clear stage definition.
Formula
Opportunity win rate = closed-won / opportunities (same definition)
Example
If 40 of 160 opportunities close, win rate is 25%.
How to use it
- Track by segment and deal size; blended win rate hides problems.
- Use win rate with sales cycle length to estimate required pipeline.
- Separate inbound vs outbound win rates to improve targeting.
Common mistakes
- Mixing stage definitions between teams or regions.
- Using a win rate from a different period than the target pipeline.
Why this matters
This term matters because small changes compound in SaaS metrics. Use consistent definitions by cohort and segment so you can diagnose retention, payback, and growth quality.
Practical checklist
- Write a 1-line definition for "Opportunity Win Rate" that your team will use consistently.
- Keep the time window consistent (weekly/monthly/quarterly) when comparing trends.
- Segment results (channel/plan/cohort) before drawing big conclusions from blended averages.
- Sanity-check with a related calculator from the same category on MetricKit.
- Read the related guide (e.g., Pipeline coverage and sales cycle math: set realistic targets (and avoid sandbagging)) for context and common pitfalls.
Where to use this on MetricKit
Calculators
- Unit Economics Calculator: Model CAC, payback, LTV, and LTV:CAC together from ARPA, gross margin, and churn.
- Bookings vs ARR Calculator: Compare bookings vs ARR (and cash) for a contract with term length and one-time fees.
- SaaS Magic Number Calculator: SaaS Magic Number definition and calculation using net new ARR and prior-period sales & marketing spend.
- Customer Lifetime Calculator: Estimate customer lifetime (months) from monthly churn rate (a simple approximation).
- MRR Forecast Calculator: Forecast MRR over time using new MRR plus expansion, contraction, and churn rates.
Guides
- Pipeline coverage and sales cycle math: set realistic targets (and avoid sandbagging): A practical guide to pipeline coverage: connect quota, win rate, sales cycle length, and CAC/payback constraints to set realistic growth targets.