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Statistical Significance

Statistical significance is a measure of whether an observed effect is likely to be real rather than due to random chance under a chosen false positive rate (alpha).

Updated 2026-01-23

Definition

Statistical significance is a measure of whether an observed effect is likely to be real rather than due to random chance under a chosen false positive rate (alpha).

Example

A p-value below 0.05 suggests the result is unlikely under the null hypothesis.

How to use it

  • A statistically significant result is not automatically a practically meaningful result.
  • Avoid repeated peeking; it inflates false positives unless you use sequential methods.
  • Pair significance with effect size and confidence intervals.
  • Set alpha in advance and stick to it for the test.
  • Report sample size and variance so results can be trusted and replicated.

Common mistakes

  • Treating p-values as proof of causality without good test design.
  • Ignoring multiple comparisons in multi-variant tests.
  • Calling a result significant when the effect size is trivial.
  • Changing the success metric after seeing results.

Measured as

Measure Statistical Significance with a fixed attribution window, conversion event, and spend basis before comparing campaigns or creative tests.

Misused when

  • Treating p-values as proof of causality without good test design.
  • Ignoring multiple comparisons in multi-variant tests.
  • Calling a result significant when the effect size is trivial.
  • Changing the success metric after seeing results.

Operator takeaway

  • A statistically significant result is not automatically a practically meaningful result.
  • Avoid repeated peeking; it inflates false positives unless you use sequential methods.
  • Pair significance with effect size and confidence intervals.
  • Use Statistical Significance only inside a stable attribution rule, conversion definition, and time window so campaign comparisons stay honest.
  • If performance changes, check whether the metric moved for a real business reason or because the measurement setup changed underneath you.

Next decision

  • Quantify the impact with A/B Test Sample Size Calculator if you need to turn the definition into an operating assumption.
  • Read A/B test sample size: how to plan conversion experiments if the decision depends on interpretation, policy, or trade-offs beyond the raw formula.

Where to use this on MetricKit

Calculators

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