Definition
Forecast accuracy measures how close your forecast was to the actual outcome (bookings/revenue) for a period.
Example
If you forecast $1.0M and book $900k, accuracy is about 90%.
How to use it
- Track accuracy by segment and by stage source to identify systemic bias.
- Use accuracy to improve process, not to punish teams (or you get sandbagging).
- Measure both over-forecast and under-forecast to see direction of bias.
- Review forecast accuracy alongside slippage to separate timing vs quality.
- Report accuracy by horizon (30, 60, 90 days) to see where signal breaks.
Common mistakes
- Comparing accuracy across periods with different forecast definitions.
- Ignoring slippage rates that shift deals out of the period.
- Changing stage definitions without re-baselining accuracy.
- Measuring accuracy without excluding pulled-in deals from future periods.
Measured as
Measure Forecast Accuracy on the same customer segment, time window, and revenue basis each time you review it.
Misused when
- Comparing accuracy across periods with different forecast definitions.
- Ignoring slippage rates that shift deals out of the period.
- Changing stage definitions without re-baselining accuracy.
- Measuring accuracy without excluding pulled-in deals from future periods.
Operator takeaway
- Track accuracy by segment and by stage source to identify systemic bias.
- Use accuracy to improve process, not to punish teams (or you get sandbagging).
- Measure both over-forecast and under-forecast to see direction of bias.
- Keep Forecast Accuracy consistent by cohort, segment, and period before you use it as a decision signal in planning or reporting.
- Interpret the metric alongside retention, margin, or payback so one ratio does not hide the real operating trade-off.
Next decision
- Read Sales ops metrics hub: quota, pipeline, win rate, and capacity planning if the decision depends on interpretation, policy, or trade-offs beyond the raw formula.
- Decide whether Forecast Accuracy is a growth, retention, or efficiency signal before you set targets around it.
Where to use this on MetricKit
Guides
- Sales ops metrics hub: quota, pipeline, win rate, and capacity planning: A practical hub for sales ops planning: quota attainment, pipeline coverage, required pipeline, sales capacity with ramp, and OTE math.