Definition
LTV (Lifetime Value) is the gross profit you expect to earn from a customer over their lifetime. The best LTV models are cohort-based, but simple formulas are useful for fast planning.
A common quick model
LTV ~= (ARPA * gross margin) / churn rate (with consistent time units).
Make sure your units match
- Monthly ARPA must use monthly churn; annual churn must use annual ARPA.
- Gross margin should reflect COGS, not operating expenses.
- If you use revenue churn (NRR/GRR), label it clearly; don't mix with customer churn.
When the quick model breaks
- Expansion revenue is significant (upsells/cross-sells).
- Churn changes over time (early churn vs long-term retention).
- Different segments have very different retention curves.
What to pair with LTV
- CAC and payback period for growth planning.
- NRR/GRR for revenue retention and expansion effects.