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Cohort LTV Forecast Calculator

Estimate cohort-based LTV using churn, expansion, gross margin, and optional discounting.

Simple LTV formulas can be misleading when churn changes over time or when expansion meaningfully offsets churn. A cohort-style forecast is a better planning tool.

This calculator models expected gross profit from a cohort over time using constant monthly churn and expansion assumptions, and can apply a discount rate to compute discounted LTV.

Prefer an explanation- Read the guide.

Cohort LTV forecasting: churn, expansion, discounting (practical model)Retention curves: how to read them and why they matter Two-stage churn: modeling early drop-off vs steady-state retention Cohort analysis playbook: retention curves, LTV forecasting, and payback

ARPA (monthly)

Gross margin

Monthly logo churn

Churn as % of customers lost per month (not revenue churn).

Monthly expansion (existing accounts)

Expansion on surviving accounts (e.g., upgrades, seats).

Months to forecast

Annual discount rate (optional)

Used to discount future cash flows; set 0 to disable.

Tip: you can type commas (e.g., 10,000).

Example

Using the default inputs, the result is:

$22,535.28

ARPA (monthly): $800
Gross margin: 80%
Monthly logo churn: 2%
Monthly expansion (existing accounts): 1%
Months to forecast: 60
Annual discount rate (optional): 12%

How to calculate

Enter ARPA and gross margin to get gross profit per account per month.
Set monthly logo churn and expansion rate assumptions for the cohort.
Choose a horizon (e.g., 36-60 months) and an optional annual discount rate.
Use the discounted LTV for planning and the undiscounted LTV for intuition.

Formula

Expected revenue_t = ARPA * (1+expansion)^(t-1) * (1-churn)^(t-1); LTV = sum gross_profit_t (optionally discounted)

Uses constant monthly churn and expansion assumptions.
Expansion is applied to surviving accounts' revenue each month.
Outputs are per original account in the cohort (expected value).

FAQ

Is this better than LTV = ARPA * margin / churn-

Often yes for planning. The simple churn formula assumes constant churn and no expansion and can be very sensitive to small churn changes. Cohort-style forecasts are easier to scenario test and extend with discounting.

What discount rate should I use-

Use your required return / cost of capital as a rough starting point (e.g., 8-20% annually). If you're comparing scenarios, keep the discount rate consistent.