Definition
A sales forecast is an estimate of bookings/revenue you expect to close in a future period based on pipeline, win rates, and timing.
How to use it
- Forecasts are only as good as pipeline hygiene and stage definitions.
- Use historical win rates and slippage by stage to reduce optimism bias.
- Separate committed, best-case, and pipeline to avoid blended optimism.
Common mistakes
- Using stale close dates that overstate near-term bookings.
- Ignoring seasonality and procurement cycles in enterprise deals.
Why this matters
This term matters because small changes compound in SaaS metrics. Use consistent definitions by cohort and segment so you can diagnose retention, payback, and growth quality.
Practical checklist
- Write a 1-line definition for "Sales Forecast" that your team will use consistently.
- Keep the time window consistent (weekly/monthly/quarterly) when comparing trends.
- Segment results (channel/plan/cohort) before drawing big conclusions from blended averages.
- Sanity-check with a related calculator from the same category on MetricKit.
- Read the related guide (e.g., Sales ops metrics hub: quota, pipeline, win rate, and capacity planning) for context and common pitfalls.
Where to use this on MetricKit
Calculators
- Blended CAC Calculator: Compare paid-only CAC vs fully-loaded (blended) CAC, and estimate payback at a target margin.
- Cohort LTV Forecast Calculator: Estimate cohort-based LTV using churn, expansion, gross margin, and optional discounting.
- Price Increase Break-even Calculator: Estimate the maximum churn (immediate or ongoing) a price increase can tolerate before it destroys revenue.
- Retention Curve Calculator: Model a simple cohort retention curve (logo retention) and translate it into expected revenue and gross profit over time.
- Two-stage Retention Curve Calculator: Model a retention curve with different churn rates for early months vs steady-state, and estimate expected value over time.
Guides
- Sales ops metrics hub: quota, pipeline, win rate, and capacity planning: A practical hub for sales ops planning: quota attainment, pipeline coverage, required pipeline, sales capacity with ramp, and OTE math.
- Pipeline coverage and sales cycle math: set realistic targets (and avoid sandbagging): A practical guide to pipeline coverage: connect quota, win rate, sales cycle length, and CAC/payback constraints to set realistic growth targets.