Price Increase Break-even Calculator

Estimate the maximum churn (immediate or ongoing) a price increase can tolerate before it destroys revenue.

Price increases are one of the highest-leverage growth levers, but they can backfire if they trigger churn or downgrades.

This calculator estimates (1) the break-even immediate churn from a price change, and (2) the break-even ongoing churn increase that would offset the price uplift over your chosen horizon.

Prefer an explanation- Read the guide.
 
$
 
%
Approximate revenue churn on existing MRR (exclude expansion).
%
 
One-time revenue loss right after the change (set 0 if unknown).
%
Additional churn added to baseline each month (set 0 if using immediate churn only).
%
Tip: you can type commas (e.g., 10,000).

Example

Using the default inputs, the result is:
$221,157.38
Starting MRR
$200,000
Price increase
10%
Baseline monthly churn (revenue)
1.5%
Horizon (months)
12
Immediate churn from price change (optional)
0%
Ongoing churn increase (optional)
0%

How to calculate

  1. Enter starting MRR and your planned price increase (%).
  2. Choose a forecast horizon (e.g., 6-24 months).
  3. Enter baseline monthly churn, then either immediate churn from the change or an ongoing churn increase.
  4. Compare revenue impact and the break-even churn thresholds.

Formula

Break-even immediate churn ~ 1 - 1/(1+price increase). For ongoing churn, compare the discounted retention of cash flows over the horizon.
  • Models the existing revenue base only (no new customer MRR).
  • Baseline churn is constant over the horizon.
  • Immediate churn is a one-time shock; ongoing churn increase applies each month.

FAQ

Why does break-even immediate churn depend only on price increase-
If churn happens as a one-time shock right after the change, the break-even point is when (1 + increase) x (1 - churn) = 1. Horizon affects payback and compounding effects, but the immediate break-even threshold is purely arithmetic.
Should I model downgrades as churn-
For revenue impact, downgrades are effectively revenue churn. If downgrades are likely, treat them as revenue loss in immediate churn or as an increase in ongoing churn for the period after the change.

Common mistakes

  • Mixing logo churn and revenue churn (downgrades behave differently).
  • Assuming churn impact is permanent when it may be a one-time shock.
  • Applying price increases without segmentation (plans, cohorts, usage).

Quick checks

  • Keep time units consistent (monthly vs annual) across inputs and outputs.
  • Segment by cohort/channel/plan before trusting a blended average.
  • Use the related guide to avoid common definition and denominator mismatches.