Price increases in SaaS: break-even churn, segmentation, and rollout

A practical guide to price increases: how to compute break-even churn, model revenue impact, and roll out changes safely.

Updated 2026-01-23

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Why price increases are high leverage

A price increase lifts revenue immediately, and the compounding effect can be significant. The risk is churn, downgrades, or reduced expansion that can erase the uplift. The goal is to understand how much churn you can tolerate and then design a rollout that keeps you well inside that limit.

Break-even churn (quick intuition)

If churn happens as a one-time shock right after the change, break-even churn is: (1 + increase) * (1 - churn) = 1, so churn_break-even ~ 1 - 1/(1+increase).

Why ongoing churn is different

  • A one-time shock is painful but bounded; ongoing churn increase compounds every month.
  • Downgrades are revenue churn (not logo churn) and often show up as contraction rather than cancellations.
  • Segment behavior matters: high-usage customers may tolerate increases better than low-usage customers.

Best practices for rollout

  • Segment: apply increases by plan, usage, tenure, and value delivered.
  • Grandfather or offer discounts for a time-bound window for price-sensitive cohorts.
  • Communicate value and give notice; reduce surprise cancellations.
  • Measure revenue churn and support tickets in the first 2-8 weeks.

FAQ

Should I model new customer growth in the price increase math-
For the break-even question, focus on the existing base first. New customer growth can hide churn issues. Once you have baseline safety, layer on new customer MRR scenarios.
Which churn should I use-
For revenue impact, use revenue churn (MRR lost) rather than logo churn. If you only have logo churn, treat the output as directional and sanity-check with revenue churn once the change ships.

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