Why target CPA is not one number
A CPA that looks great for one business can be disastrous for another. The right target depends on customer value (LTV), margin, and how quickly you need cash back (payback).
Break-even vs target CPA
- Break-even CPA: the max you can pay and still make $0 profit on gross profit LTV (no buffer).
- Target CPA: a more conservative number that leaves buffer for uncertainty, overhead, and measurement error.
Target CPA formula (simple model)
- Break-even CPA = revenue LTV * contribution margin.
- Target CPA = break-even CPA * (1 - buffer).
- Use a payback cap if you need cash back within a fixed window.
Target CPA example
If revenue LTV is $3,000 and contribution margin is 60%, break-even CPA is $1,800. With a 20% buffer, target CPA is $1,440.
Best practices
- Use gross profit LTV (or contribution after variable costs), not revenue LTV.
- Validate incrementality as spend scales; attribution can overstate value.
- Add buffer for refunds, fraud, churn shocks, and long payback cycles.
Common mistakes
- Calling lead CPA 'CAC' without converting leads to customers.
- Mixing fully-loaded CAC with revenue-based LTV (mismatch).
- Setting a target CPA above break-even because short-window ROAS looks good.