Paid Ads

Incrementality

Incrementality estimates the conversions that would not have happened without ads (true lift).

Updated 2026-01-23

Definition

Incrementality estimates the conversions that would not have happened without ads (true lift).

Example

If the exposed group converts at 5.0% and the holdout group converts at 4.6%, incremental lift is 0.4 percentage points (about 8.7% relative lift).

How to use it

  • Use holdouts or geo-experiments to estimate incremental lift.
  • Be careful with short tests when purchase cycles are long.

Common mistakes

  • Treating attribution as causal truth (it's model-based credit).
  • Running tests without clean holdouts (contamination breaks results).

Why this matters

This term matters because it affects how you interpret performance and make budget decisions. If you use inconsistent definitions or windows, ROAS/CPA can look "better" while profit gets worse.

Practical checklist

  • Write a 1-line definition for "Incrementality" that your team will use consistently.
  • Keep the time window consistent (weekly/monthly/quarterly) when comparing trends.
  • Segment results (channel/plan/cohort) before drawing big conclusions from blended averages.
  • Use a calculator that references this term (e.g., Incrementality Lift Calculator) to sanity-check assumptions.
  • Read the related guide (e.g., Incrementality: how to tell if ads are actually driving growth) for context and common pitfalls.

Where to use this on MetricKit

Calculators

  • Incrementality Lift Calculator: Estimate incremental conversions, incremental ROAS, and incremental profit from a holdout test.
  • Marginal ROAS Calculator: Estimate diminishing returns and find the profit-maximizing ad spend from a simple response curve.
  • Target CPA from LTV Calculator: Translate LTV and contribution margin into a target CPA (and break-even CPA) for paid acquisition.
  • MER Calculator: Calculate MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio / blended ROAS) and estimate break-even and target MER from margin assumptions.

Guides