Why required pipeline matters
Pipeline is the input; bookings are the output. If you know your win rate and average deal size, you can estimate how much pipeline and how many opportunities you need to hit a target.
Core math
- Wins needed = target / average deal size.
- Opportunities needed = wins / win rate.
- Pipeline needed (value) ~ target / win rate.
Make it accurate
- Segment by deal size (ACV bands) and motion (PLG vs sales-led).
- Use stage-consistent win rate.
- Add a slippage buffer based on history (many deals push).
- Re-check the buffer each quarter as close rates and cycles change.
Translate to activity targets
- Convert opportunities needed into required SQLs using stage conversion rates.
- Translate SQLs into MQLs or PQLs based on historical funnel ratios.
- Back into daily or weekly targets for pipeline creation.
Pipeline required QA checklist
- Use win rate and deal size from the same segment and stage definition.
- Check that expected close dates fit the target period.
- Remove pipeline that is stalled or missing next steps.
- Confirm that required pipeline per rep is realistic for capacity.
Scenario stress test
- Run win rate down 5 points to see how pipeline needs expand.
- Test ACV up and down 10% to see how required wins change.
- Use the scenario range to plan top-of-funnel requirements.
Common mistakes
- Using a single average deal size across segments.
- Using win rate from the wrong funnel stage.
- Ignoring time lag (pipeline must be closeable within the period).
Planning checklist
- Translate pipeline dollars into required SQLs and MQLs.
- Use historical slippage to add a realistic buffer.
- Review coverage weekly and adjust targets early.